This is Election Countdown, The Hill’s weekly newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We’d love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at [email protected] and Max at [email protected]. with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please).
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We’re 97 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 825 days until the 2020 elections.
President Trump has been selective about candidate endorsements — factoring in where he can have the most impact, while avoiding being tied to an embarrassing loss. That dynamics is at work again ahead of Tennessee’s primaries on Thursday.
The gubernatorial primary to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Bill Haslam is the race to watch and one in which the president is notably staying neutral.
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GOP Rep. Diane BlackDiane Lynn BlackBottom line Overnight Health Care: Anti-abortion Democrats take heat from party | More states sue Purdue over opioid epidemic | 1 in 4 in poll say high costs led them to skip medical care Lamar Alexander’s exit marks end of an era in evolving Tennessee MORE is battling it out in a tough primary against several Republican rivals, including businessmen Bill Lee and Randy Boyd. Vice President Mike PenceMichael (Mike) Richard PencePence posts, deletes photo of Trump campaign staff without face masks, not social distancing Pence threatens to deploy military if Pennsylvania governor doesn’t quell looting Pence on Floyd: ‘No tolerance for racism’ in US MORE endorsed Black and Trump has previously praised her for helping pass tax reform during her stint as chair of the House Budget Committee. But having Trump officially on your side–and delivering a coveted endorsement in GOP primaries–would have given Black more of a cushion going into Thursday’s primary.
Trump, though, has weighed in on the race in Tennessee’s 8th district where freshman GOP Rep. David KustoffDavid Frank KustoffLobbying world Trump announces, endorses ambassador to Japan’s Tennessee Senate bid GOP to launch discharge petition on anti-BDS measure MORE faces a stiff primary challenge from George Flinn, a radiologist and perennial candidate. Flinn, who’s been self-funding his campaign, has heavily outspent Kustoff.
Other races to keep an eye on in Tennessee are two open House seats held by Republicans. Trump won both these districts by at least 35 points, and they’re expected to remain red in November.
In retiring Rep. John DuncanJohn James DuncanLamar Alexander’s exit marks end of an era in evolving Tennessee Tennessee New Members 2019 Live coverage: Social media execs face grilling on Capitol Hill MORE Jr.‘s district, seven Republicans are competing for the east Tennessee seat. The mayor of Knox County and a state legislator appear to be the leading candidates, but the only woman in the race, military pilot Ashley Nickloes, is looking to break through the crowded field.
And in the race for Diane Black’s seat, five Republicans are running including former state Agriculture Commissioner John Rose, who’s deeply connected in the district and the leading fundraiser. The president won the 6th district by nearly 50 points, and candidates are touting their support for Trump.
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The Senate race doesn’t have a competitive primary, but it officially sets up the high-profile race between GOP Rep. Marsha BlackburnMarsha BlackburnGOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police GOP senators dodge on treatment of White House protesters Five things to know about Trump’s legal power under the Insurrection Act MORE and former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D). Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Tennessee in nearly 30 years, but Bredesen, a popular governor who served from 2003 to 2011, has led in some polls this year.
A day before the primary, Blackburn launched her first TV ad of the campaign that focuses on her “strong Tennessee values.” Bredesen has also been on the air.
Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC has indicated that it believes it’s worth investing in the Tennessee race and has made reservations for August and fall TV ads.
Special election primer
We’re less than a week out from Ohio’s special election and things are heating up quickly as Republicans scramble to hold on to a reliably red seat, where Trump won by 11 points in 2016.
Republican Troy Balderson appeared to have the edge for months over Democrat Danny O’Connor, but a new Monmouth University poll out Wednesday — the first public poll since June — has the race as a toss-up.
The poll comes on the heels of news that Trump will hold a rally Saturday night in the Columbus suburbs to help Balderson. Trump’s visit could give him a boost among the base, whose voters are critical in low-turnout races like special elections.
A lot can happen over the next six days and the race is clearly still wide open, but Democrats are likely feeling pretty good about their current position. If they pull off an upset victory, it’ll give them the narrative they’ve been looking for: that Democrats can compete in GOP-leaning suburban districts that will be key to taking back the House.
Senate showdown
Trump is back on the campaign trail, stumping for Florida Republicans in tough election fights. At Tuesday night’s Tampa rally, Trump said that “we have to make sure that [Gov.] Rick Scott wins and wins big” in his race to unseat Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonNASA, SpaceX and the private-public partnership that caused the flight of the Crew Dragon Lobbying world The most expensive congressional races of the last decade MORE (D-Fla.). Scott was notably absent from the rally, but did attend a workforce training event alongside Trump earlier that day. Trump also touted Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), an unabashed Trump supporter who attended the rally, who is running in the GOP primary for governor.
DeSantis made his loyalty to Trump very clear in a new ad on Monday where he teaches his children how to “build the wall” with toy bricks.
The Koch network, the web of conservative groups funded by billionaire industrialist Charles Koch, is giving the cold shoulder to Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) in his bid to unseat Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn Heitkamp70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents Susan Collins set to play pivotal role in impeachment drama Pro-trade group launches media buy as Trump and Democrats near deal on new NAFTA MORE, The Hill’s Jonathan Easley reports from Colorado Springs, Colo. In fact for now, the network will only back a handful of GOP Senate candidates in Florida, Wisconsin, Missouri and Tennessee in the midterms as it seeks to freeze out Republicans it believes flouted its brand of fiscal conservatism.
In an interview, Charles Koch acknowledged that he regretted backing certain candidates in the past. “We’re gonna more directly deal with that and hold people accountable,” he said.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has made endorsements in the Arizona and Wisconsin Senate races. Gingrich is backing Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyGOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police No evidence of unauthorized data transfers by top Chinese drone manufacturer: study Senate Democratic campaign arm launches online hub ahead of November MORE in the race to replace Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeGOP lawmakers stick to Trump amid new criticism Kelly holds double-digit lead over McSally in Arizona: poll Trump asserts his power over Republicans MORE (R-Ariz.), and state Sen. Leah Vukmir in the race against Sen. Tammy BaldwinTammy Suzanne BaldwinBiden launches program to turn out LGBTQ vote We need a ‘9-1-1’ for mental health — we need ‘9-8-8’ Democrats introduce bill to rein in Trump’s power under Insurrection Act MORE (D-Wis.).
Survey says…
Dead heat in Texas and Nevada Senate races: In Nevada, Rep. Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenThe Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Mnuchin sees ‘strong likelihood’ of another relief package; Warner says some businesses ‘may not come back’ at The Hill’s Advancing America’s Economy summit The Hill’s Coronavirus Report: CDC Director Redfield responds to Navarro criticism; Mnuchin and Powell brief Senate panel Hillicon Valley: Experts raise security concerns about online voting | Musk finds supporter in Trump | Officials warn that Chinese hackers targeting COVID-19 research groups MORE (D-Nev.) and Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerOn The Trail: Democrats plan to hammer Trump on Social Security, Medicare Lobbying World Democrats spend big to put Senate in play MORE (R-Nev.) are essentially tied, 41 to 40 percent, in a new poll from Suffolk University and the Reno Gazette-Journal. Meanwhile, in Texas, Rep. Beto O’RourkeBeto O’RourkeBiden will help close out Texas Democrats’ virtual convention: report O’Rourke on Texas reopening: ‘Dangerous, dumb and weak’ Parties gear up for battle over Texas state House MORE (D-Texas) is neck and neck with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), 41 to 39 percent, in a new Texas Lyceum Poll. But another poll out Wednesday from Quinnipiac University found Cruz ahead by 6 points.
Florida’s Senate race is also pretty close: A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Gov. Rick Scott (R) leading Sen. Bill Nelson (D) by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent. The poll is within the margin of error, but it’s good news for Scott, who previously trailed Nelson.
In a new poll from OH Predictive Insights, McSally is the front-runner in the Aug. 28 GOP primary, leading former state Sen. Kelli Ward by 8 points. But McSally still trails Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) by 4 points in a hypothetical general election match-up.
Three new NBC/Marist polls out last week bode poorly for Republicans in three potential battleground states. The survey shows Trump’s approval dwindling in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.
In Wisconsin, one of the state’s Trump flipped in 2016, 61 percent of registered voters said they want to “give a new person a chance” in the governor’s mansion. That’s a bad sign for Gov. Scott Walker (R), who’s seeking a third term in office. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is also leading her two possible Republican challengers by at least 15 points, the NBC/Marist poll found.
What we’re watching for
Primary season is back, starting with the Tennessee primaries tomorrow. The next ones will be held Aug. 7 in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington. That is also the date for Ohio’s special election.
Trump will continue hitting the campaign trail, with his next rallies taking him to Wilkes-Barre, Pa. on Thursday to stump for Rep. Lou BarlettaLouis (Lou) James BarlettaBottom Line Ex-GOP congressman to lead group to protect Italian products from tariffs Head of Pennsylvania GOP resigns over alleged explicit texts MORE, who’s running for Senate, and Delaware, Ohio on Saturday to campaign for Balderson in the special election
Coming to a TV near you
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee‘s third wave of fall TV ad reservations total $7.1 million, with much of that going to Dems’ battle for seven GOP-held seats that Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE won in California. The Hill’s Reid Wilson reported from Los Angeles that nearly half of that money — $3.1 million to be exact — will be spent in Los Angeles for the seats held by GOP Reps. Mimi Walters, Steve Knight, Dana RohrabacherDana Tyrone RohrabacherDemocrat Harley Rouda advances in California House primary Lawyers to seek asylum for Assange in France: report Rohrabacher tells Yahoo he discussed pardon with Assange for proof Russia didn’t hack DNC email MORE and the seat being vacated by Ed RoyceEdward (Ed) Randall RoyceGil Cisneros to face Young Kim in rematch of 2018 House race in California The most expensive congressional races of the last decade Mystery surrounds elusive sanctions on Russia MORE.
Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerRepublicans prepare to punt on next COVID-19 relief bill GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police Trump tweets spark fresh headache for Republicans MORE (R-N.D.) is pushing back against an ad by VoteVets, a liberal veterans group, with a spot of his own. A quick refresher on the VoteVets ad: It quotes Cramer saying that increasing defense spending was “becoming a very difficult pill.” It accuses him of turning “his back on our veterans and service members.”
The Cramer remarks were made to Reuters in March also called defense spending a “very high priority” and his criticism seemed to be directed at GOP leaders’ handling of a massive spending bill.
Cramer’s response features a group of military veterans sitting around a table. “I like Heidi. Who doesn’t like Heidi? But I don’t like the way she votes in Washington,” one woman, identified as a retired lieutenant colonel, says, about Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.).
The Club for Growth unveiled a new ad spot on Monday resurrecting decades-old unproved domestic violence allegations against Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillMissouri county issues travel advisory for Lake of the Ozarks after Memorial Day parties Senate faces protracted floor fight over judges amid pandemic safety concerns Amash on eyeing presidential bid: ‘Millions of Americans’ want someone other than Trump, Biden MORE’s (D-Mo.) husband, Joseph Shepard. The ad also questions whether the senator, who’s seeking a third term in office, can be an effective advocate for victims of domestic abuse. The controversial ad drew a firm rebuke from McCaskill’s campaign, which denounced it as “an ugly and shameful personal attack.” “Claire will not be discussing her husband’s divorce, which occurred over 20 years ago,” Meira Bernstein, the communications director for McCaskill’s campaign, said. “Missourians deserve so much better.”
Wave watch
Two Democrats locked in Indiana House races are among the latest candidates to say that they won’t back Minority Leader Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiTrump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Pelosi: Georgia primary ‘disgrace’ could preview an election debacle in November MORE (D-Calif.) for a leadership role if they’re elected: Mel Hall, who is hoping to unseat Rep. Jackie WalorskiJacqueline (Jackie) R. WalorskiScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Scalise blasts Democrats for calling on certain companies to return PPP loans Scalise targets China, WHO response from coronavirus oversight perch MORE (R) in Indiana’s 2nd district, and Liz Watson, who’s looking to oust freshman Rep. Trey HollingsworthJoseph (Trey) Albert HollingsworthThe Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Rep. Hurd says China engaged in global disinformation campaign; US unemployment highest since Great Depression The Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Chef José Andrés says most political leaders today are not acting with urgency; Dems crafting ‘Rooseveltian’ relief package Former Surgeon General Vivek Murthy says public health threat of loneliness compounded by COVID-19; Trump says task force will ‘evolve’ MORE (R) in Indiana’s 9th district.
Democrats’ chances of flipping Rep. Dennis RossDennis Alan RossCourt opens door to annexing the West Bank — and the consequences could be disastrous The problem with Trump’s Middle East peace plan Fears of ‘What’s next?’ will influence Iran’s — and the world’s — reactions MORE‘s (R-Fla.) seat may have just gotten a little better. The Cook Political Report moved Florida’s 15th district from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.” Ross announced in April that he would not seek reelection in November. Five Republicans and three Democrats are vying for their parties’ nominations to replace Ross.
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), who is in the midst of a competitive race with Democrat Harley Rouda, this week defended the 2016 meeting between Trump campaign officials and a Russian lawyer promising dirt on Clinton. Rohrabacher told Mother Jones’ David Corn that “there’s not a person in this town who would not take a meeting to get material like that.”
A handful of Hollywood celebrities are getting ready to back Democratic candidates ahead of the midterms, The Hill’s Judy Kurtz reports. Experts say that liberal celebs hoping to stymie Trump are likely to become more active over the next three months. GOP critics, however, were quick to point out what happened when celebrities went all in on Hillary Clinton‘s campaign.
Forrmer President Obama on Wednesday also unveiled a list of 81 endorsements of Democratic candidates in races across the country. But Obama also kept his distance from some high-profile races. Notably not on the list were Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), who is running for Senate.
Race for the White House
Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) are both progressive icons and mulling whether to jump into the 2020 race. But as The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports, many Democrats are worried that there might not be room for both of them in the Dem primary, which will feature a crowded but wide-open field.
The two have worked together on some key issues, but there are growing tensions as 2020 nears.