Poland is in rude health as it approaches its six months in the EU’s spotlight. It does, however, have reasons to be anxious.
The European Union could hardly ask for the country taking over the leadership of the Council of Ministers to be in better shape.
Poland’s economy is growing at a rate that even Germans might envy. There is a palpable sense of movement domestically – the country’s foreign policy has been revamped, investment is strong and reforms are under way in such pivotal areas as pensions, health and defence.
The government is stable. There are elections due in the autumn, but what would be a danger for other countries taking over the presidency (witness the recent experience of the Czech Republic and Belgium) may prove to be only a peripheral distraction. The largest party, Civic Platform (PO), is on course for a clear victory.
At the EU level, Poland enjoys some advantages: Jerzy Buzek, a former prime minister, is now presiding over the European Parliament; Donald Tusk, the current prime minister, enjoys a particularly good relationship with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and gets on well with Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council.
The administration in Warsaw also brings with it a quality currently rare in European capitals: optimism. Much of that optimism is the fruit of the Poles’ own labours; others are a matter of luck, such as the discovery of enough clean(ish) shale gas to lessen the reliance on dirty coal.
But the upbeat mood also reflects something broader – a sense that membership of the European Union has been beneficial. Economists ascribe much of Poland’s economic growth to European integration, opinion polls show strong support for the EU, and Polish citizens have proven far more willing than most to take advantage of the opportunities of the EU’s labour market. That positive, pro-European mood will help over the next six months and could lend credibility to another relatively rare feature of this presidency: the message that the negotiations about the EU’s future spending should not concentrate exclusively on austerity.
But could Poland be too fit for the presidency? Will it over-estimate its strength and the strength of the rotating presidency? Will it make unrealistic demands of its fellow member states? Will events blow it off-course in important areas? The Council of Ministers requires its presidency to perform a decathlon, chairing councils in all areas of EU activity. Is Poland being forced to compete in more disciplines than it is equipped for?
Poland may be in rude health, but there are still reasons for Poles to feel anxious as the presidency approaches.
Ego should not be a problem. The incoming presidency is damping down expectations, the cabinet is low-key in character, and Tusk, its unquestioned leader, is a quiet player. But the presidency still has expectations to live up to, in its own eyes and those of the Polish public.
Unfortunately, several of its favourite disciplines – in foreign policy – may prove unexpectedly tricky and less fruitful than would have been predicted two years ago. Events in north Africa will distract Poland from its immediate, eastern neighbourhood. A testy neighbour, Belarus, is now deep in the type of economic turmoil that is hard to plan for or respond to. Croatia’s late spurt in negotiations on EU membership means that even if enlargement talks are finalised on Poland’s watch, Poland’s overall role will have been minimal. A political deal on the Schengen zone’s expansion to include Bulgaria and Romania may prove beyond Poland’s grasp.
The Polish presidency may also end up feeling frustrated in some of the disciplines that it would most like to win – the budget and agriculture – where negotiations will be left open, to be concluded under succeeding presidencies.
And its domestic politics may yet prove a complication, as the agriculture portfolio is in the hands of the junior partner in the government, the Polish People’s Party (PSL). Although Civic Platform’s electoral victory seems assured, the PSL is at risk of being excluded from parliament. That risk might tempt it to play to domestic audiences by seeking attention on the European stage.
As a non-member of the eurozone, Poland starts with an automatic handicap in directing negotiations on economic affairs. And its relative neglect of other disciplines – such as the environment and health – means that many stakeholders are already looking to the following presidency, Denmark’s, for meaningful action.
It is quite possible, then, that the presidency will be more than averagely successful and yet feel a disappointment to Poles. For non-Poles, it is likely to be memorable, whatever its results, for the seriousness with which the Poles have approached it. The Polish government held a full cabinet-to-college meeting with the European Commission as long ago as last June, which was supposed in part to demonstrate that its presidency would be co-operative, well prepared and well co-ordinated. Others murmur that the Poles could be more collegial.
Mikolaj Dowgielewicz, Poland’s Europe minister, expresses the hope that the rotating presidency can help the EU’s institutions work “like an orchestra”. The rehearsal time is over: the Polish presidency now has to perform.
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