Former New York City Mayor Michael BloombergMichael BloombergEngel scrambles to fend off primary challenge from left It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process Liberals embrace super PACs they once shunned MORE is viewed as the Democrat most likely to defeat President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE if nominated, according to a newly released betting market analysis.
However, the analysis from researchers at Standard Chartered Bank, first reported by CNBC, also found that Bloomberg is viewed as having a 10 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
“Our interpretation of online market pricing is that Bloomberg is viewed as having the highest chance among Democrats of beating Trump if nominated. But his nomination probabilities are currently running just over 10 percent,” the study states.
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The research shows that among the top-polling candidates, Bloomberg and former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE are the two candidates viewed as having the highest chances of winning given perceptions about how friendly they would be for asset markets.
“Among investors, Bloomberg and Biden are probably viewed as the most asset-market friendly among the Democratic candidates, so their greater implied electability may be why US assets are not showing more stress,” the researchers wrote.
Bloomberg, who is self-funding his campaign, has not appeared in the Democratic debates since launching his campaign in late November, as he has failed to meet the donor threshold set by the Democratic National Committee. Still, he has polled near the middle of the primary field.
The former mayor has spent more than $200 million on his campaign so far and has said he may spend up to $1 billion to defeat Trump, even if he is not the nominee.
The researchers wrote that Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE’s (I-Vt.) chances of winning the general election are rising in online markets and are slightly behind Biden’s, while Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) and former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) “look to have relatively low odds of beating Trump” if nominated.
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Trump, according to their findings, has a 55 to 60 percent chance of winning, a more significant shot than any Democrat. Incumbents typically have an electoral advantage as long as the economy is perceived as reliable, researchers noted.
Trump looks to be rising both in his conditional electability and in online markets’ assessment of his “absolute electoral odds,” wrote researchers, adding that investors appear to have rising confidence that federal policy will be U.S. market-friendly.
“It may be too early for asset markets to respond to the ups and downs of the nomination process. Moreover, even though candidates have stated positions, investors may be discounting the follow-through once elected,” the research noted.
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“Elected officials often do not implement their positions, and with a split Congress (online markets give about a 70% chance that the House stays Democratic and the Senate Republican), the President may not be able to push through his/her agenda,” it added.