Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán | Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images
Conservative group is struggling to find common ground on the question of Fidesz’s future.
Europe’s center right can’t make up its mind about Viktor Orbán.
The European People’s Party is seriously considering extending the suspension of Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party, EPP officials and insiders said — another sign that the conservative political family is struggling to handle ideological divisions between its moderate and right-wing factions.
The EPP suspended Fidesz last March over concerns about the rule of law in Hungary and anti-Brussels rhetoric. A decision on whether to extend the suspension is expected at the EPP’s political assembly on February 3-4, when EPP President Donald Tusk and party leaders will gather in Brussels. It’s still unclear, however, whether an actual vote will be called at the meeting.
“Tusk is not happy with the situation, but for now, suspension will be maintained,” one EPP insider said, while adding that Tusk could still choose another option.
After Fidesz was suspended, the EPP appointed a three-man panel to investigate the situation in Hungary and issue a recommendation on whether the party should stay or be expelled. As a result of the suspension, Fidesz was stripped of its voting rights in the group and no longer participates in any party meetings.
But EPP officials say the so-called wise men have not yet issued any recommendation, and Orbán hasn’t done anything to alleviate any of the party family’s concerns since the suspension. Tusk tweeted earlier this week that he would “present my assessment of the report after my consultations with party leaders at the upcoming EPP Political Assembly.”
The new EPP leader — Tusk took over the presidency late last year — faces a dilemma: He is struggling to find common ground within the EPP on the question of Fidesz’s future.
Members of the EPP from countries like Sweden, Finland and Luxembourg have long argued that Fidesz, which has been accused of undermining checks and balances in Hungary, does not belong in the EPP. Last week, 99 members of the EPP group in the European Parliament were among 446 MEPs voting in favor of a resolution criticizing the European Council for failing to effectively address rule-of-law problems in Hungary and Poland.
But Orbán’s party has allies among EPP members from France and Slovenia, and to a lesser extent in Spain and Italy. Party members in Eastern countries like Croatia and Bulgaria — whose influence within the EPP is growing — are also keen to see Fidesz stay.
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Some party officials blame the powerful German conservatives, the main delegation in the EPP group, for their ambivalence toward Orbán. While many German EPP MEPs voted in favor of the recent resolution raising concerns about the state of democracy in Hungary, they have not completely shut Orbán out, with some members preferring to delay a decision on Fidesz.
“I would be in favor of extending the suspension,” said Daniel Caspary, a lawmaker from Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
The question of Fidesz’s future is also a first test for Tusk as EPP leader. He had publicly promised to reach a decision by the end of January. Speaking at the EPP’s November congress in Zagreb, the Polish politician said Orbán was a “very close friend,” but he didn’t agree with “ideas represented” by the Hungarian leader, especially his “illiberal democracy.”
Hungarian officials say that their first choice is staying in the EPP, as long as the political family is willing to move away from its centrist positions.
The Fidesz party’s leadership sees its “long-term future within the EPP — of course an EPP that is changed on many important, basic questions,” said MEP Tamás Deutsch, head of the Fidesz delegation in the European Parliament and a founding member of the party.
“The EPP is doing something wrong,” he added, citing sliding results in European elections and a diminishing number of heads of government. He predicted that in the future there would be a “strong, right-wing, conservative, Christian democrat” pan-European party, adding that the question now is whether this force will be the EPP or another group.
Orbán, meanwhile, appears to be keeping his options open.
Earlier this month he met with Polish ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party leader Jarosław Kaczyński and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to discuss cooperation between their two parties. PiS is a member of the more right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in the Parliament.
And just as the EPP’s political assembly meets in Brussels in early February, Orbán is set to travel to Rome to appear at a “National Conservatism Conference” along with Italian far-right party leaders Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni, and French National Rally member Marion Maréchal, niece of Marine Le Pen. Other expected attendees include the head of the ECR group in the Parliament, PiS member Ryszard Legutko.
Speaking on Hungarian radio last week, Orbán said that when it comes to his wish to see a change in the EPP, there is “hope that is diminishing by the day, but still exists.”
Nevertheless, there are signs the prime minister is willing to wait and see how the political winds blow. Orbán “can live” with an extended suspension from the EPP, said one senior member of Fidesz.
Hans von der Burchard contributed reporting.