European Council President Charles Michel | Francois Walschaerts/AFP via Getty Images
EU leaders will return to the 2030 emissions target in December.
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For some, Europe’s new climate target will be hard to swallow.
With German Chancellor Angela Merkel intent on brokering a stronger 2030 emissions reduction goal before her country’s EU Council presidency closes out this year, leaders of the EU27 will meet over dinner on Thursday in Brussels and try to find a way.
All countries have backed the bloc’s goal to reach climate neutrality by 2050, but the consensus is fragile. Countries remain split on whether to back cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030, as proposed by the European Commission last month — just one skirmish in a long-running fight over EU climate policy.
On Wednesday, the Commission found that the EU’s energy system — it’s biggest contributor to climate change — is on track to beat the current 40 percent emissions reduction target for 2030, but dialing it up to 55 percent will require a revamp of energy and climate policy and massive emissions cuts across the economy.
Countries are already lagging on meeting the current 2030 energy savings target of 32.5 percent, and if the overall goal rises to 55 percent that would have to increase to 40 percent. They are expected to surpass the bloc’s 2030 renewable energy goal of 32 percent, but under a more ambitious target, renewables would have to make up around 40 percent of final energy consumption — breaking through in sectors such as transport and buildings that have been stubbornly stuck on fossil fuels. Working directly against these efforts are fossil-fuel subsidies: €50 billion in 2018 and rising.
A deal to raise the emissions target to 55 percent isn’t expected on Thursday. There are more pressing issues for leaders to discuss, especially Brexit. Draft conclusions from the meeting seen by POLITICO throw the issue forward to the next summit in December.
European Council President Charles Michel wants the evening to produce “a constructive debate on the issue … to pave the way for an agreement by the end of the year,” he said. What remains to be decided is what it will take to get everyone around the table on board.
A 55 percent goal is a level of ambition that was politically unimaginable a year ago.
But the European Green Deal, which is meant to deliver the 2050 climate neutrality target, signaled to all sectors that carbon emissions are over. To date, electricity and industry have done the heavy lifting. Get agriculture and transport on board and real movement is possible.
The pandemic has also opened up new opportunities. The step-change required will need a massive injection of investment. With Europe in a deep recession, the bloc’s €1.82 trillion pandemic recovery and budget program is meant to help fund the green energy shift, and ease the concerns of poorer and coal-reliant countries such as Poland, which worry that higher targets will saddle them with greater costs.
However, a final deal will be dependent largely on whether Warsaw, Prague and other capitals feel there is enough cash to grease the wheels relative to the size of each country’s expected contribution — and also, potentially, any unrelated interests that leaders may wish to tie into the debate.
“Everything is dependent on the way the more reluctant countries find an interest benefiting from EU funding for the transition to non-fossil fuel activity,” said Laurence Tubiana, the CEO of the European Climate Foundation and one of the architects of the Paris Agreement.
Those countries are facing off against a growing alliance of largely Western and Northern EU members determined to push through stronger climate action.
On Wednesday the leaders of 11 countries — Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden — said in a joint statement: “Significant emissions reductions are both required and possible … We need to agree on increasing the 2030 climate target to ‘at least 55 percent.’”
Bridging the divide by December would help the bloc finish the year with a climate bang — and also let Merkel salvage her reputation as a “Climate Chancellor” before she vacates her seat in Berlin, given that Germany would oversee the detailed negotiations as the EU Council presidency.
“I think it’s really important for Chancellor Merkel to finalize this in a good way. It will be her legacy,” said Tubiana.
According to the draft summit conclusions, the European Council will “return to the issue at its December meeting with a view to agreeing a new emissions reduction target for 2030″ and to submit an updated climate commitment under the Paris Agreement “before the end of the year.”
EU leaders meet on December 10 and 11 — a day before the five-year anniversary of the Paris Agreement. Failure to strike a deal on the 2030 target would undermine claims that the EU is a global climate leader, and weaken its efforts to get other major economies such as China on board.
The coming weeks will give EU officials and diplomats more time to negotiate compromises and, possibly, more financial support as policymakers finalize the details of the bloc’s pandemic recovery program.
A Czech diplomat said Thursday the country could back a 55 percent emissions cut, as long as it was an EU-wide average target and wouldn’t negatively impact industry but rather opened up new investment opportunities. Prague is also pushing for recognition that using nuclear power, which is controversial in the bloc, will help the country meet higher goals.
Leaders are also expected to invite “the Commission to conduct in-depth consultations with Member States to assess the specific situations and to provide more information about the impact at Member Statesʼ level,” according to the latest conclusions. The addition reflects a demand from Warsaw in particular, which has called for more analysis of the national impact of raising the 2030 target.
Still, year-end is too late for many lawmakers in the European Parliament, who already agreed to an even more ambitious 60 percent emissions cut and a position on the EU’s Climate Law last week and want to start negotiations with the Council.
Bas Eickhout, vice chair of the Greens group in the European Parliament, tweeted on Tuesday: “German Presidency can strike a deal this week in the Council if they want. Let’s not postpone this decision again.”
This article has been updated with Czech comments and wording from the latest draft European Council conclusions.
Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting.
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